Making Aggressive Opening Offers
(right, Amy Poehler as the Dollar takes a beating from the Euro on SNL)
Because people often ask me about the wisdom of making aggressive opening offers, I'm summarizing one of my favorite articles on anchoring by a Kellogg Graduate School of Management Professor. His conclusion is that negotiators are not aggressive enough in their opening offers.
Although we are often told that only "reasonable" first offers influence negotiation outcomes, I am unaware of the existence of any research to support this dictum. Unfortunately, I suspect that the "reasonable first offer" theory is from the Graduate School of Feeling Good About Ourselves at Kumbya University.
The research discussed below is typical of all of the research and statistical studies I've recently read. If you've got contrary authority, please do pass it along.
1. Research shows that how we respond to an offer is highly influenced by any number that enters the negotiation environment. (one study used zip codes to influence numeric estimates).
2. The greater the parties' uncertainty about the value of the item/s being bargained for the stronger the anchoring effect of the first offer.
3. That anchoring effect will continue to exert a strong pull throughout the rest of the negotiation THE SUPPORTING RESEARCH
The Supporting Research
Researchers had real estate agents inspect a house and estimate its appraisal value as well as its purchase price. they manipulated the house's list price, providing high and low anchors. All of the agents' estimates were influenced by the list price even though they denied factoring the list price into their decisions. When challenged, the agents cited features of the property that would justify their estimates.
In another study, researchers sent customers to mechanics to obtain estimates on the value of a car. The customers asked the mechanics for their opinions only after suggesting a value of their own. Half the mechanics were given a low anchor and half were given a high anchor. The mechanics estimated the car to be worth a thousand dollars (actually they were Deutsche Marks) more when they were given the high-anchor value.
WHY ANCHORS AFFECT US THE WAY THEY DO
The author (see link below) explained the phenomenon this way: items being negotiated have both positive and negative qualities—qualities that suggest a higher price and qualities that suggest a lower price. High anchors selectively direct our attention toward an item's positive attributes; low anchors direct our attention to its flaws. A high list price directed real estate agents' attention to the house's positive features (such as spacious rooms or a new roof) while pushing negative features (such as a small yard or an old furnace) to the back recesses of their minds. Similarly, a low anchor led mechanics to focus on a car's worn belts and ailing clutch rather than its low mileage and pristine interior.
MAKING THE FIRST OFFER
The author found that when a seller makes the first offer, the final settlement price tends to be higher than when the buyer makes the first offer. The amount of the first offer affects the outcome, with more aggressive or extreme first offers leading to a better outcome for the person who made the offer. Initial offers better predict final settlement prices than subsequent concessionary behaviors do.
HOW EXTREME CAN IT BE?
The author's research suggests that first offers should be quite aggressive but not absurdly so. The fear that an aggressive first offer will scare or annoy the other side and perhaps even cause him to walk away in disgust is typically exaggerated. Most negotiators make first offers that are not aggressive enough.
A nonaggressive first offer requires small concessions or a decision to stand by the original demand. Because one of the best predictors of negotiator satisfaction is the number and size of the concessions extracted from an opponent, aggressive first offers give your opponent the satisfaction of extracting significant concessions from you. In that case, you'll not only get a better outcome, but you'll also increase the other side's satisfaction.
For the full text of this article, see "When to Make the First Offer in Negotiations" from Negotiation, July 2004, by Adam D. Galinsky, an assistant professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management, in Evanston, Illinois.
For exceptions to the high anchor = high ending price, see Starting Low But Ending High: A Reversal of the Anchoring Effect in Auctionsby Ku, Galinksy and Murnighan.
We'll talk about ways to avoid these anchoring effects in later posts.
